We hosted a small dinner last month, with guest speaker John Suffolk (the former Government CIO – http://johnsuffolk.typepad.com) and a group of leaders from the UK ICT sector. It’s fair to say that the discussion was wide-ranging: What’s next for IT suppliers in the public sector? What’s next for Britain? What’s next for the human race? Is Moldovan sparkling wine better than Champagne?
It’s also fair to say that the debate was pretty unstructured (increasingly so as the dinner progressed…) which makes the task of writing a summary quite challenging. But I’ve tried to start the ball rolling by grouping some of the highlights from the evening into four main themes. If you were with us at the dinner, feel free to add a comment with your key points below…
But first, a two-sentence summary…
The world (especially technology) is changing faster than our ability to understand it; countries as well as companies need to get better at spotting and seizing the opportunities that are out there. For suppliers to the public sector, this will require radical change towards taking ‘speculative’ business-led propositions to autonomous areas (like health or police) where solutions will be replicable (and the days of massive central government contracts are numbered).
Challenges and opportunities for suppliers to the public sector
The challenges are more numerous than the opportunities, or certainly in central government. The headline shift is that suppliers have the opportunity to be bolder in creating propositions to solve specific challenges. Consultants need to stop asking “what keeps you up at night?” and software vendors need to stop saying “we have the best tool on the market – how many licenses do you want to buy?” Instead, suppliers should come with specific propositions that solve well-documented business challenges – the kind of thing that we’ve described before as a ‘provocation proposition’.
But that’s not the whole story. Broadly speaking, there are 3 audiences that suppliers will need very different messages for (and should probably be communicating with pretty constantly to build up momentum for an opportunity). There are the strategic thinkers and CIOs who are looking for bold, business-led commercial propositions, but purchasing and procurement teams are often still thinking in 10 year cycles, and then there are the ministers (of varying quality) who need the vote-winning angle alongside seeing the relevance to stated policies.
So who do you take these business-led propositions to? Generally, the opportunities are outside central government – in health, police, education, local government. Forward looking leaders in organisations in these sectors are going to be most receptive to the more speculative supplier approaches.
There’s also a view that now’s the time to be preparing your approaches to these organisations. Why? Because they’ll need to be making radical changes in 2012 and will be planning these towards the end of 2011. This year, they’ve managed to make small changes and sacrifices to achieve 10% budget reductions. But when they start planning after the summer, they’ll realise that making an additional 10% cut on top of this will mean doing some things in a radically different way (the BBC has just covered views of the implications for the police – the first shots in an ongoing battle). It’s essential for suppliers to tie into budget planning after the summer with ideas in support of the structural re-thinks that will be happening.
John’s view is that the greatest opportunity (as yet not properly understood by suppliers) lies with the mutualisation agenda, which may begin with the formation of locally-based services and organisations, but which could grow with consolidation into big business.
Procurement and commercial models
There’s no point pretending though that all buyers and suppliers will be able to take up some of the opportunities available (or that there are enough opportunities for all).
In terms of procurement, there was a nod to the fact that some of the biggest suppliers find it to their advantage when procurement drags on (the major bid budgets involved keep a lot of competition out of the process). The discussion also covered some of the challenges with the EU procurement process – and the fact that there are ways of speeding up the process if buyers and suppliers find the right ways of framing the purchase.
On the commercial side, supplier margins will continue to be squeezed – with offshoring services and the SaaS model cutting prices and entry/exit costs, even the bespoke software and services that are needed at the top of the stack will feel the pinch. It’s not that there won’t continue to be a need for high end services and bespoke software at the top end – it’s just that there will be a knock-on effect from lowering costs at the bottom end.
For software, the old license model is dead and it will all move to pay as you go (some procurement may still be a bit behind the curve in looking cost of ownership over 5 or 10 years, but not for long). The more commoditised side of the services market is already following suit, and the large Indian outsourcers (who have already been proven by government) will be adopting them as part of their armoury of tactics. Don’t fool yourself into thinking that you can disguise an old model and still compete against these new entrants!
One thought this raises is how much both traditional software and particularly services providers realise that changing buying behaviour and commercial models will demand a re-think of their marketing models. Looking for smaller, potentially shorter term contracts, would suggest a marketing model more like Salesforce.com than SAP (or even Accenture – as they move to a pay by performance or by demand model, services businesses could learn from the SaaS model). As margins go down, maintaining the personal touch and 121 relationships with potential buyers will become even harder commercially.
But when John rattled off a list of countries around the world that are watching the UK to see how our initiatives perform, it was clear that there are potentially global prizes to be won by suppliers who can get over these hurdles and make a success of the opportunities in the UK.
Wider government challenges/strategies
There was some interesting discussion about how technology is changing the way that government interacts with the people. One example was in terms of how pressure groups can emerge that force government to respond.
Social media is obviously a significant factor here – creating forums for groups that might not otherwise have reached critical mass and allowing them to influence policy-making. One consequence could be that more single-issue politicians may be elected, or at least that each politician may have to justify their position on certain issues.
And views on trends in the world in general…
John started the evening with a call to arms – the old models of everything (from government, to technology, to business, education, travel…) are disappearing, and leading IT suppliers are among those best placed to embrace the change – if they want to. Try to resist it, and you likely won’t be around in 10 years time.
Asked where the next revolution in technology will come from, John’s views highlighted both the small (nanotechnology) and the massively large (million connection distributed computing networks).
And where the evening started with discussion around the pace of change, it ended on a similar note. Will technology come to the rescue of the planet? John’s answer was partly positive – that technology opens a lot of new possibilities for us (for example, leading edge use on show in South Korean health service), and in fact that the greatest challenges provoke the combination of new and existing technology into solutions to major problems. But he also had a word of warning that the speed of innovation is way outstripping our ability to comprehend the possibilities on offer – something we will have to overcome or find ways to manage if we want to make the best use possible of the innovations that are coming down the pipeline.